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8 Simple Steps to Scalp The Forex Market
Thursday, January 24, 2008

A pure Forex scalper exits a position quickly if the market doesn't go his way. He will make a number of trades a day, between 10 to a couple hundreds, and he doesn't hold on to a losing position hoping or praying that it will turn around!

The main aim of the Forex scalper is to buy (or sell) a particular pair of currency at the bid (or ask) price and then quickly sell them a few pips higher (or lower) for a profit. When the Forex scalper uses this strategy, small profits can be easily compound into large gains if a strict exit strategy is used to prevent accumulating large losses.

Most Forex scalper mostly makes use of 1 min, 5 mins or hourly charts to scalp for small profits in the Forex market. Most of the good Forex scalper will choose a brokerage house that provides a reliable platform with instant execution of orders, which is highly crucial to his profits.

I was fortunate enough to know and work with some of the best day traders that scalps for a living. They have shared with me some of the main ingredients, which they use to scalp the market. In this post, I am going to summarize the scalping strategy which i have incubated, into 8 simple steps;

1st Step

Go to www.forexfactory.com to check important data release time

2nd Step

Record the previous day OHLC (Open, High, Low, Close) for all the 4 major currency in your diary.

3rd Step

Identify candlestick studies(i will reveal more next time) on the daily charts

4th Step

Identify major trendlines, support and resistance on the daily charts

5th Step

Determine the market sentiments (Bullish or Bearish?) for the day.

6th Step

Go to hourly charts and determine the support and resistance

7th Step

Lookout for candlestick (We will talk more about it in our next article) formations on hourly basis.

* For reversal candlestick signal; - Wait for better signal or staggered your lots - Enter only near support or resistance level

8th Step

Adjust your risk to entry level when you are 10pips in the money.

* Scalping Risk Reward Ratio Risk : 10pips Target Profits : 20pips

I hope you have benefited from my summary above, on the steps to scalp the Forex market. In my next article, I will be focusing more on the Japanese Candlestick Studies.

Sebastian Sim

I'm a 31 year old Singaporean. Who started my trading journey since 2004. Now, I focus mainly in Stock Options, Forex and Unit Trusts(Mutual Funds) Investments. I've started a site The Trading Zone - a site about trading pyschology, Forex trading, investments and other topics that interests me from time to time.

Sebastian Sim

Article Source: Ezine Articles

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posted by Storm @ 1/24/2008 02:29:00 AM   6 comments
Forex News Trading: The latest marketing wizardry in the forex market
Thursday, January 10, 2008

Welcome to “Shoot-out in Main Street”


(also called “Hop-a-long Cassidy and Forex Kid live at EST 08:30”)



I want to explain to you how so-called News Trading is the latest method devised by the marketing wizards to take your money.

The more subtle marketing wizards package it very scientifically. They use impressive looking historical statistics to show how price action unfolded immediately after certain economic data releases. See the pattern, they trumpet, and make money from it.

The less subtle approach explains how to beat the gun with proprietary data feeds on supposedly important data releases. In reality, most of these data releases have never had any significant impact on the forex market before, but despite this, the marketing wizards invite you to join them in the shoot-out by paying a monthly subscription in the belief that this will help you beat the market makers.

Before I go any further in showing you how to really lose your money, your mind and your interest in this most lucrative market, let me just tell you why I think you can pay attention to what I have to say on the topic. Apart from the fact that I describe in my book, Bird Watching in Lion Country – Retail Forex Trading Explained (BWILC), the absolute necessity of real-time analysis and the folly of basing a trading strategy for the long-term on very short-term technical analysis indicators - or other illusionary patterns - I also explain a term which I coined: “relational analysis”. This simply means that, if you are trading forex, you have to relate three things all the time: price, time and events.

News trading as a concept has mainly to do with “events” and specifically with those anticipated events that cause prices to move more than usual, but only briefly - brief even in terms of short-term trading. News trading as offered by the marketing wizards takes this concept and then distorts it to rob you of your money.

Non-farm payrolls: March 1998

My mentor is an institutional bond trader who has a simple view on technical analysis: “if the prices are high, it may be time to sell and if the prices are low it may be a time to buy”. (He amusingly referred to traders’ screens filled with every conceivable squiggle, line and indicator as Playboys – dirty pictures.)

The point he was making is that trading decisions were not made based on technical analysis other than for the basic positioning it could give you as regards where the price is now, relative to where it has been recently. If you are closely monitoring the market you will have a feel for this anyway, but charts are helpful for a quick snapshot picture.

Noting and being acutely aware of upcoming economic data releases was one of the main elements of his analysis and approach to understanding the market and price action. This is what he based his trading decisions on. At the time I started trading in 1998 I was only vaguely aware of things like CPI, PPI, trade balance, money supply, and unemployment – all the things that give economists and analysts that warm and fuzzy feeling – but I quickly acquired an interest, figured out what each of them meant and started using the Sunday papers’ business section to monitor releases and follow the comments.

At this stage I was trading bonds on margin here in South Africa.

I had no live real-time price feed, nor a charting service. After a few months I got a pager-based informational price feed which was about as real-time as you could get. In addition to price changes it also informed me of economic data releases. If you saw a price change occour that made you to want to trade, you used the phone to call the broker - who wasn’t in the primary business of fielding these sorts of calls - and so, if you were lucky you got through to someone who was willing to help, and that help usually took the form of discussing how stupid your anticipated trade was.

My dumbest trading idea ever

Now, you have to understand, there is a psychological element to all of this. Big price moves are exciting – and they lure traders. If you could figure out how the prices would react to the data releases you might just have it made, I thought. But my mentor explained to me why this was about my dumbest idea. Of course I knew everything, and disagreed. “Look”, I said “Here are all the examples, I have this cracked.” But I didn’t. And he explained to me why. Let me first give you some background.

One of the things that I realized when looking into the phenomenon of News Trading (2006 retail FX version) was that it was brand new in the forex market (you’ll see how new below.) I have been watching economic data and its effect on short-term forex pricing since I started in forex in 2000/1. I did this because this is the genetic code of the forex market. Very early on I bought a book by Brian Kettell, “What drives the Currency Markets”? This book contains a dedicated chapter on the phenomenon of expected economic data releases and the academic research on their impact on the US dollar, in the very short term and also in the longer run. With the right perspective of the market all data releases make sense, as do price action around these data releases. (I am not talking about the on-the-release spikes.)

When I decided to write this newsletter, something prompted me to go to my 1999 diary in which I did some initial, and to me, important research on price behaviour and relating different markets’ influences on the market I was involved in (the South African government bond market). And then I almost fell on my back. What did I see?

On Friday 5 March 1999 at 15:30 local time I wrote:

“US Employment as expected. 14.16% à 14.11% !!!!”

I was referring to the non-farm payrolls report. My note indicated that it had come out as expected and my exclamation marks indicated that it had triggered a relatively big price move on the South African bond market.

Consciously or unconsciously, relating price, event and time has been a part of my trading from the very beginning and a constant feature of my analysis. It has become the genetic code of my 4 X 1 strategy and relational analysis. I watched the effect of the non-farm payrolls for probably 5 to 6 years before many so-called forex gurus caught on. In fact, many of them mechanically recited the mantra “don’t trade on a Friday, play golf” until quite recently.

If repetition is the mother of all learning, my news watching experience may have been behind what I said to my clients in my Daily Briefing (GMT 06:00) on non-farm payrolls (GMT 12:30) October 6, 2006:

You can also rest assured that the new bread of news traders will have an increasing tussle with their clearinghouses - a fight the news traders will lose and due to the historical sentiment that the jobs report is the big one, the day that April / May 2003/4 - can't exactly remember which one - will be repeated and the blood will be flowing is nearing. Someone is going to get sick of it and run the market and shake out every trade straddle and news trader trick in a million mile radius ...

The following is a visual representation of what happened with that release:

Fig 1: Shoot-out on FX Street

1

The last 30 minute candle gives the picture. In the bottom right corner the time is indicated as 08:40:29. The data release was at 08:30 and the pre-release price was 1.2670 (EURUSD). The action during these ten minutes dwarfs the preceding price action of more than 60 hours. According to News Trading 2006, the spike from 1.2670 to 1.2710 should have had follow-through as the increase in non-farm payrolls was only 50,000 whereas 125,000 was expected. Even a significant adjustment to the previous month simply negated the impact of the 50,000 and brought the month’s net adjustment in line with the three month average. (This supposedly should have resulted in a “no trade” due to no volatility. Big revisions to previous jobs reports are a standard feature and part of the expectations.)

My dumbest trading idea ever - reborn: Class of 2006 News Traders

The idea of doing something on News Trading came to me after I had launched my Bird Watching Newsletter in August 2006. The first two newsletters covered the topic of leverage. I didn’t know what I was going to do for the third. And then it came to me as a flash-back to my days as an early bond trader, how I was going to beat the market. Dumb idea, the dumbest I have ever had. That was then, now it is 2006, but history is repeating itself. There are a lot of newbies thinking they are sitting on the best idea since sliced bread, but as they’ll find out, they are just being plain dumb.

I cottoned on to the revival of the “dumbest trading idea ever” (2006 version) when one of my clients who was trading a live account contacted me on the Instant Messenger, with an ominous “what’s happening here?” “Here” was the market and a recent data release, and “what was happening” was basically nothing. Yet my client was bothered. Why? (As background I should perhaps just mention that my main source of real-time information and analysis is CNBC Europe. All economic data releases are discussed beforehand, flashed instantaneously, and analysed afterwards. My television is near me, either with the sound on (not very often), or with the sound way down, which allows me to see the ticker and news flashes.)

So for a moment I was taken aback by the client’s question because as far as I knew nothing had happened and, the way I had anticipated it, nothing was supposed to happen. It was some minor data release in the US of no real consequence for forex and the release was basically as expected. However, zooming in on my very short-term charts I saw there had been a flurry of price action around this mundane data release and a relatively significant spike and then a reversal but, all said, no big deal, yet my client was anxious. Why?

And then the penny dropped. News Trading had become the big new thing. I should have picked it up, the signs were all around me. Marketing wizards were punting it. Bird Watching affiliates had become big on “News Trading” recently. I checked and sure enough, there had been a number of recent referrals from those sites. New clients increasingly had “News Trading” in their vocabulary. I should have seen it earlier, but there it was, the new manifestation of my old dearest and dumbest trading idea ever, the News Traders of 2006.

And where News Trading is present, sorrow, loss and confusion is never far behind. It was all so familiar. Of course it was much sexier now with instant information, many different feeds to choose from, analysts by the dozen, gurus by the bagful, and those exhilarating 1 minute and 5 minute tick charts tracking the rising and falling account equity of 1 minute-a-day News Trading “millionaires”, but the results were the same: people losing money.

Hop-a-long Cassidy and the Forex Kid

At school I read cowboy books. The only author I can remember now is the legendary Louis L’Amour.

Crossfire Trail; Showdown at Yellow Butte; Last Stand at Papago Wells; The First Fast Draw; The Quick and the Dead; The Sacketts; Hanging Woman’s Creek and many more.

If you haven’t read the books I am sure you would have at least seen a traditional western movie. The plot is pretty simple. There are cowboys and there are crooks. The crooks come to town and cause havoc. In ride the cowboys and you know the shooting is about to start. All the decent folk get out of the way, mothers grab children off the street, stores close, windows are boarded, old people get off the boardwalk, someone peeks from behind a curtain. There is danger in the air, and before you can say “shoot-out”, Main Street is cleared. The action starts, guns blaze, the bad guys turn tail. And sometimes there is an interesting sub-plot - some testosterone driven wannabe Kid with a gun joins in. He’s been told beforehand not to, but he can’t be dissuaded. He reckons he’s slick with a fast draw but he’s just an amateur. He comes up against the pros and the result is a dead Kid.

One of L’Amour’s books is called The Daybreakers … sounds a bit like The Day Traders.

The Class of 2006 News Traders know when there will be a shoot-out, they know it is going to be ugly, but they can’t be talked out of it. They’re the wannabe Kid. Don’t join the shoot-out, the greybeards tell them, but no, they know better.

The problem with shoot-outs is that so much can happen and there is a lot that can go wrong. For instance, the other guy can be faster on the draw. But he can also have a back-up man somewhere behind you, just in case. Crooks come in pairs (as do currencies). Shoot-outs are unpredictable, lead flying in all directions, and the only guy who benefits is the funeral parlour owner (the forex broker?).

News Trading 2006 version

As far as I can see there are two main strategies used by the Class of 2006 News Traders.

Strategy 1 – The fast draw

This dumb strategy asserts that by being quicker than the broker who gives you the prices to trade on, you can actually make money on a variety of data releases.

This can’t be done consistently, but people fool themselves into thinking it can with one or two text book examples, and using the perfect science of hindsight.

Strategy 2 – follow the leader

This strategy, equally unsuccessful, believes that if the prices go in one direction after the news release they will in the vast majority of cases continue to do so. This, despite good evidence that price action following data release is pretty much a random walk. Of course, this is not enough to deter Hop-a-long Cassidy and the Forex Kid, and they will grimly hang in there until the last bit of life blood is drained from their account.

Slick marketing wizardry shows technicolour examples of fantastic big directional moves on news releases according to the classic News Trading models, ie, the straight forward shootout. Recently however the reviews of their trades are punctuated, with “classical reversals” (being shot in the back?), exceptions to the rule, and other qualifications - only the traders using the professional services offered at a price (like opening and funding a live trading account) are privy to this “inside info”. In other words, simplistic marketing is used to lure Forex Kid to the shoot-out and the moment he arrives he is caught in a deadly crossfire. Doesn’t this sound ominously like the intra-day technical analysis models touted by the self-same forex marketing wizards?

Why do Hop-a-long Cassidy and Forex Kid keep ending up in the mortuary?

It is simply a fact, based on statistical probabilities, that when there is more than a certain amount of lead flying about, you will be hit.

When the shoot-out of data releases starts, the wise old men of Forex Town, sitting on the veranda’s day in and day out watching the daily lives of Forex Town’s folks, vacate Main Street. That is why they are old – remember the adage: there are old traders and there are bold traders but there are no old bold traders.

Many readers (at least all those who have read Bird Watching in Lion Country) know that one of the major delusions of retail forex created by the marketing wizards is that the forex market is ideal for technical analysis. Every marketing wizard trick was initially built on this illusion. People with a deep understanding of technical analysis, which most starry-eyed newbies in the forex market don’t have, know that one of the pillars of technical analysis is accurate volume information. If a move occours on high volume it is much more meaningful than a move on low volume (because a move supported by volume is likely to continue and not peter out in a false break).

Where’s the volume control?

In the spot forex market there is no reliable real-time volume information available, particularly on the retail level. Notwithstanding this, extreme importance is given to technical analysis by the marketing wizards and volume was simply substituted by fast price moves, which, I might tell you, is a wholly inadequate replacement. In other words, a relatively large / fast intra-day price move is seen as extremely important - it must have been on large volume, the argument goes. This, however, is bogus. A large, fast move in the forex market can be caused by almost anything.

Believing it is volume just because the price is moving fast and far, will cost you dearly.

On an intra-day level, fast and relatively large price moves are usually caused by a lack of liquidity. In fact it is a situation of lower, not higher volume and the pros actually don’t like trading if they feel the liquidity is thin and they are not getting the prices they want.

Volume in the currency market can come from two sources: either very large single transactions by a single or handful of participants with the same objectives, or many participants with smaller transactions with the same objectives at any given time. If you for one moment think a number of rational, professional money managers, traders or executing agents will use an erratic data release to do large transactions, you will seriously have to rethink even your most basic assumptions about the forex market. Since 2001 there has been an explosion in general forex market volumes and a large portion of this increase was due to the growth in the numbers of hedge funds and smaller money managers like Commodity Trading Advisors (CTA). It is certainly fair to assume that this large increase in the number of participants contributed to both better liquidity and larger volatility across all time frames in the FX market.

Nobody in his right mind, with his business or bonus at stake, is going to do highly leveraged trades and take undue risks when price movements are random. You have to understand that this is simply not how professional investors or traders, responsible for other people’s money, trade. Highly leveraged gambles on intra-day events are just not part of their repertoire. These guys are pros, and if it is not part of their repertoire, it should not be part of yours.

Don’t trust your mother, but trust your forex counter party

Because the forex market is not a centralized exchange regulated by exchange rules which assure participants that their transaction will be honoured, you have to trust your counter party. What makes this dynamic so interesting is that your counter party also has to trust you and that if this mutual trust is violated someone is going to come short.

Unfortunately retail traders are prone to seek opportunities to exploit the perceived faults in their counter parties’ armour. The moment that this threatens the sustained profitability of the counter party these schemes fall flat – they always have and they always will.

Scalper arbitrage was probably the first of these schemes. As marketing wizards competed to lure more clients, they decreased spreads and margin requirements which opened opportunities for arbitrage pip scalpers to enter the fray using a variety of tricks at the expense of their counter party – the market maker. The pip scalpers had fantastic demo account track records. Things changed the moment the market makers’ (real) money was on the table. This was probably the first fight that the retail traders (the pip scalpers) lost hands down against the market makers, who simply instructed their dealers to identify the pip scalpers who didn’t heed the warnings, and take them out. Problem solved.

The second one was straddling news releases. The thing the retail traders tried to exploit was marketing wizards luring clients with guaranteed fixed spreads and guaranteed stops. It was basically just the US non-farm payrolls that really attracted this group a few years ago. They would place entry orders on both sides of the market just before the data release. Apparently a win-win scenario. So what did the market makers do? They refused to guarantee that they would execute your price on the level you had entered it. As a result they could enter you at a bad price and then take you out on the stop on the retracement and even if you then made money on the other leg of the straddle, it was hardly enough for you to cover your loss on the first stopped-out leg.

However, systemic risk for the market maker remained a problem. If a few hundred or thousand retail traders take 100:1 and 200:1 bets on a data release, the market maker became seriously exposed. Market makers are there to make money, not to run the risk of blowing up on one economic data release.

The problem was that they had to cover themselves against the positions taken by the non-farm payroll straddlers by hedging their exposure at their own clearing houses. Now you try to convince a big bank dealer to take a huge position one minute before non-farm payrolls release. He will send you packing. So the market makers couldn’t off-set their risk and thus had to carry the risk of huge and highly leveraged positions themselves. One bit of bad luck and a whole month’s profits could be wiped out.

The market maker makes the rules

There was a particular non-farm payrolls day a few years ago during which, just before the release, the market was run up about 60 or 70 points and on the data release it was run down about 150 points. Blood flowed on “Forex Street”. The shoot-out was rigged. Rumours abounded that a large futures company caused this outrageous price movement. The market makers had had enough and changed the rules of the game to restore order and prevent news release straddles that could harm them.

How did they do this? Well, they made adjustments to their business practices and their contractual arrangements with clients. Spreads are fixed under normal market conditions and so stops will be honoured under normal market conditions, but not under abnormal market conditions – market makers were free to widen their spreads and thereby pass the risk on to the trader. Sometimes they simply wouldn’t allow traders from entering orders shortly before keenly watched data releases. And the decision as to what constitutes normal and abnormal market conditions rests exclusively with the retail forex market maker. Problem solved.

The Class of 2006 News Traders vs Market Makers

Straddling is no longer an option, so News Traders do the next best thing. They try to beat the gun by guessing the direction of the market’s first move, and then they try to benefit with highly leveraged positions.

There are a few challenges, however:

Being fastest on the draw. This means you need to get a good price close to the pre-release price and before your market maker removes the arbitrage opportunity (initial price spike according to News Trading theory) in an instant.

Being fastest on the draw also means you have to draw faster than the rest of the mob trying the same thing. The risk of them jumping the gun enters the equation.

Before you can actually start drawing to shoot, you have to decide what this data release actually means and how all those who react after you, will react to the data release. What will have the main and immediate affect, the headline or the details?

In other words you must take a guess if this data release will indeed cause a large enough move for you to risk taking the highly leveraged position and secondly, you have to guess correctly the direction of this move vis-à-vis the US dollar.

Opportunists who can see what is going on don’t try to jump the gun but jump in counter the first spike, causing more erratic price movements.

Here is a challenge for anybody who thinks he is going to make a living by consistently beating the odds in a well-publicised shootout with the ever-evolving dynamics I have described above.

Let’s assume you will be able to beat the gun and regularly get an extremely good fill on your news trade. All you will be dependent on then is to analyse the market correctly to understand if the first spike will be up or down (let’s look at it from a USD perspective).

How do you determine that? Well that’s the question, and it doesn’t have a simple answer, despite what the News Trading gurus, analysts and TV talking heads say. There are simply too many factors playing a role: the history of this particular data release, expectations, how far expectations are off or might be off, the actual figures of the data release, the expectations’ reaction to its own expectations, the expectations reaction to the data, it just goes on and on until the final result is just another bout of randomness.

If you don’t believe me try tossing a coin over a period long enough to get a representative sample and then compare your results with that of your guru’s.

News Traders – architects of their own demise.

Let’s look at the dynamic the Class of 2006 News Traders cause in the FX market:

They don’t straddle the market beforehand. They jump in the market on the data release mostly in the same direction (there aren’t many gurus promoting this loony method to lose money). What happens? They cause a sudden great demand for a currency, let’s say euro. As a result euro’s price spikes up - I am talking a few seconds. Our news traders’ orders get filled usually at a worse price than they had hoped for but nevertheless they are in the market and then two things happen – this is before most professionals, still looking at the details of the release, even paid attention to the immediate price action. First this sudden demand just vanishes, so there is no upwards momentum to cause the follow-through the news traders hope will give them their measly pip target on their highly leveraged position. Secondly the weak “highly leveraged” hands with a few pips profit decide to get out, and in a wink there is suddenly euro supply and a turnaround materialises.

During all of this you have a market maker trying to make a decent market for decent clients and now having to manage this crazy action in a traditionally illiquid market. It took a very prominent forex market maker specialist - in fact the one currently with the highest net capital according to the CFTC reporting - about two months to figure out that they have a bunch of hooligan traders on their hands that could cause them serious damage. Their response, as I mentioned above, was to start fooling around with the spreads in order to discourage and chase away News Traders.

Fixed and floating spreads are a topic of a future newsletter, but understand this: widening spreads, thus increasing the cost and the risk to deal, is a basic protection mechanism of the forex market. In the week following 9/11 the New York Stock Exchange was closed as a protective measure against market meltdown. The forex market increased the spreads to 30 - 40 pips on the most popular pairs and 80 – 100 pips on the less liquid pairs.

News Trading is fundamentally an arbitrage opportunity, but like all arbitrage opportunities it will vanish very quickly if the market catches on. There is already evidence that this is happening and this evidence is clear from the reporting of the sudden change in fortunes of some of the gurus now selling this as a subscription opportunity. Whereas past records are reportedly flawless, recent records are certainly not.

In this case, just as with the initial pip scalpers, the arbitrage is basically a duel between the mob of retail traders and their market maker. There will only be one winner.

The death knell for News Trading as a popular strategy

Why do people latch on to News Trading? Because they buy the pitch sold to them by marketing wizards that News Trading is the new way to become a consistent winner. There is no other reason. Unfortunately marketing wizards have already realized that News Trading can make good money for them (but not for you). Here is the proof:

One of the biggest forex marketing wizard companies is behind the popularisation of the 2006 News Trading fad. You must understand that News Trading only makes sense if it is done highly leveraged and very regularly. According to this specific crowd you must push the leverage and you must, wait for this, “place close stops”, because “it will be suicide to use the high leverage without close stops”. (And this is true, but it is only a half-truth, and as with all half-truths it is the other half that kills you.) If this strategy were to be put forward by an individual he would appear foolish. But touted and encouraged by a market maker and their introducing brokers it appears legitimate and savvy.

I downloaded a free report some two years ago from a company. The report gave statistical evidence regarding very short-term price behaviour and supports my contention that it is basically random and that there is no edge to be derived from searching for repetitive linear patterns in these very short-time frames. This company has now changed its view on the randomness of short-term price behaviour. Needless to say they now push News Trading. Unlike some outfits who ask subscription fees for their services (guessing which way the market will go after data releases) everything is free, but you must open a trading account to use their automated News Trading service at the big marketing wizards mentioned above. Even documentation prepared by the big marketing wizards above is provided by this company.

It is pretty clear who sits behind the current popularisation of News Trading. The beneficiaries of regular highly-leveraged-tight-stop trading strategies are the market makers and their marketing agents who promote the viability of this kind of hair-brained trading.

(I again want to point out that while professionals may even play along and have a punt on some data releases it will never be a consistent feature of their professional strategy to expose themselves to any great degree. Yet this is what you are encouraged do: take all your trading capital, gear it up like crazy and take a punt on what is essentially an event with a 50 / 50 probability of satisfying your highly leveraged bet. The placement of a close stop practically ensures that in every instance you do not make money, the market maker gets a nice pay out in addition to whatever he made on the spread.)

And that is why I say you can bet your bottom dollar that most fools who try News Trading will lose. Different game, but the same people are selling it. Here is an example of why you should be very afraid.

A prominent and respected analyst at one of the largest market makers (and marketing wizards) wrote an article on News Trading in which the technical analysis approach to intra-day trading is debunked. Now this should make your ears prick up because they were (and still are) the very ones punting it – to take your money. Ever innovative, they have come up with News Trading as the big new thing, though in this research article news trading in the spot forex market is discouraged.

So what is the solution – can retail traders win?

Yes they can win. They can win if they first of all do not fall for the tricks of marketing wizards. In order to be able to do that you must understand the market very well. Secondly you need to have a strategy that is, or has aspects of it, used by professionals. Thirdly, and this is very important - you must not catch the unwanted attention of a market maker. Do not violate the trust relationship that is supposed to exist by trying to exploit weaknesses in the system and create a scenario where your market maker can only lose. He holds the aces because he can change the rules of the game. If you have a strategy that offers a winning edge, you will be able to negotiate this market and make money without resorting to any fundamentally flawed concepts and tactics which attract the sort of attention from your counter party that will end up costing you money.

There is more than one way to make money trading any market and there are a myriad of factors playing a role in being successful, including having a scientific edge, being a master of relevant analysis and working through the constant changes in the markets. Success as a trader does not come cheaply, it does not come overnight and it does not come from running after every fad touted by marketing wizards. Success is hard earned, requiring application of, and dedication to, sound trading and business principles. Bird Watching in Lion Country – Retail Forex Trading Explained is a thorough introduction to what you need in this regard and it explains in sufficient details my strategy and methodology that have served me and my clients well.

Next time

Love them, hate them but don't mess with them: My take on forex brokers.

Kind regards





Dirk D. du Toit


SOURCE: Go Forex

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posted by Storm @ 1/10/2008 02:05:00 AM   0 comments
Technical Indicators Tutorial
Monday, January 7, 2008
Price is the primary tool of technical analysis because it reflects every factor affecting the value of a market. However, price doesn't produce just trend lines and basic chart patterns. Analysts have expanded their research far beyond those basic elements to develop a number of technical indicators that provide more insight into price action than what you see on the surface. You may be able to see that a market is “extended” (overbought or oversold) just by looking at a bar chart, but an indicator can put a number to it and confirm your thinking.

First, a warning about indicators in general. Most analysts do not rely on only one indicator but often use several indicators together to help make a trading decision because of the misleading information one indicator might provide. An oscillator indicator is not a trading system but only provides helpful insights in certain market conditions.

Oscillators tend not to work well in markets that are in a strong trend. They can show a market at either an overbought or oversold reading for an extended period while the market continues to trend strongly. Another example of oscillators not working well is when a market trades into the upper boundary of a congestion area on the chart and then breaks out on the upside of the congestion area. At that point, it's likely that an oscillator would show the market as being overbought and possibly generate a sell signal when, in fact, the market is just beginning to show its real upside power.

From a list of literally hundreds of technical indicators, we have selected the more popular ones to illustrate what is available. These technical indicators can be put into several categories:

Strength and Sentiment Indicators

Although most technical indicators are based on price data and various manipulations of that data, a few are based on other market activity. For example, when prices make a move, how many traders are participating and who are they? Volume and open interest are indicators that reflect some basic numbers about how traders are driving the market, and Commitments of Traders reports reveal the caliber of participants involved.

Volume and open interest - In and of themselves, volume and open interest data may not be that valuable other than to indicate the liquidity of a market. But used in conjunction with price action, these numbers serve as a strength indicator that can provide some meaningful verification about the significance of a price move.

Volume is the number of transactions in a futures or options on futures contract made during a specified period of time, usually one trading session. One buy and one sell equals a volume of one.

Open interest is the total number of futures or options on futures contracts that have not yet been offset or fulfilled by delivery. It is an indicator of the depth or liquidity of a futures market, which influences the ability to buy or sell at or near a given price.

Open interest can be a little confusing. If a new buyer (a long) and new seller (a short) enter a trade, their orders are matched and open interest increases by one. However, if a trader who has a long position sells to a new trader who wants to initiate a long position, open interest does not change as the number of open contracts remains the same. If a trader holding a long position sells to a trader wanting to get rid of his existing short position, open interest decreases by one as there is one less open contract.

Volume and open interest are "secondary" technical indicators that help confirm other technical signals on the charts. If an upside price breakout is accompanied by heavy volume, that is a strong signal that the market may want to continue to move higher because it indicates more traders jumped on the rising prices. On the other hand, a big upside move or a move to a new high that is accompanied by light volume makes the move suspect and indicates a top or bottom may be near or in place. Also, if volume increases on price moves against the existing trend, then that trend may be nearing an end.

To validate an uptrend, volume should be heavier on up days and lighter on down days within the trend. In a downtrend, volume should be heavier on down days and lighter on up days. A general trading rule is that if both volume and open interest are increasing, then the trend will probably continue in its present direction. If volume and open interest are declining, this can be interpreted as a signal that the current trend may be about to end.

Changes in open interest can help a trader gauge how much new money is flowing into a market or if money is flowing out of a market, a valuable insight in evaluating a trending market. Open interest does have seasonal tendencies – that is, it is higher at some times of the year and lower at others in many markets. Look at the seasonal average (five-year average) of open interest in your analysis.

If prices are rising in an uptrend and total open interest is increasing more than its seasonal average, it suggests new money is flowing into the market, indicating aggressive new buying, and that is bullish. However, if prices are rising and open interest is falling by more than its seasonal average, the rally is the result of holders of losing short positions liquidating their contracts (short covering) and money is leaving the market. This is usually bearish, as the rally will likely fizzle.

Here are two more rules for open interest:

  • Very high open interest at market tops can cause a steep and quick price downturn.
  • Open interest that is building up during a consolidation, or "basing" period, can strengthen the price breakout when it happens.

Commitments of Traders Reports - Open interest can be taken one step further by examining the Commitments of Traders (COT) report issued every Friday afternoon by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

COT reports provide a breakdown of the preceding Tuesday's open interest for markets in which 20 or more traders or hedgers hold positions equal to, or above, reporting levels established by the CFTC.

The report breaks down open interest for large trader positions into "commercial" and "non-commercial" categories. Commercial traders are required to register with the CFTC by showing a related cash business for which futures are used as a hedge. The non-commercial category is comprised of large speculators, mainly commodity funds. The balance of open interest is qualified under the "non-reportable" classification that includes both small commercial hedgers and small speculators.

To derive the net trader position for each category, subtract the short contracts from the long contracts. A positive result indicates a net long position (more longs than shorts). A negative result indicates a net short position (more shorts than longs). The results may mean different things in different markets, so it usually takes some experience with COT numbers before you can see their value in trading.

The most important aspect of the COT report for most traders is the change in net positions of the commercial hedgers. The premise of COT analysis is that commercials are the “smart money” because they have a strong record in forecasting significant market moves, have the best fundamental supply and demand information and have the ability to move markets because of the large size they trade. That's the side of the market where you want to be.

Some traders like to take positions opposite of what the COT report suggests that small traders (non-reportable positions) are doing, assuming most small speculative traders are usually under-capitalized and/or wrong about the market.

Trend Indicators

Trend lines are the basic indicator of trend, but they are quite subjective, depending on the eye of the beholder. So analysts have refined technical indicators such as moving averages or the directional movement index to quantify the data and smooth out day-to-day fluctuations to present an overall view of price direction and the trendiness of the market.

Moving Averages - Perhaps the simplest to understand and most widely used technical indicator is a moving average, which smoothes past data to illustrate existing trends or situations where a trend may be ready to begin or is about to reverse. A moving average helps you spot market direction over time rather than being caught up in short-term erratic market fluctuations. There are three main types of moving averages:

  • Simple. Each price point over the specified period of the moving average is given an equal weight. You just add the prices and divide by the number of prices to get an average. As each new price becomes available, the oldest price is dropped from the calculation.
  • Weighted. More weight is given to the latest price, which is regarded as more important than older prices. If you used a three-day weighted moving average, for example, the latest price might be multiplied by 3, yesterday's price by 2 and the oldest price three days ago by 1. The sum of these figures is divided by the sum of the weighting factors – 6 in this example. This makes the moving average more responsive to current price changes.
  • Exponential. An exponential moving average (EMA) is another form of a weighted moving average that gives more importance to the most recent prices. Instead of dropping off the oldest prices in the calculation, however, all past prices are factored into the current average. The current EMA is calculated by subtracting yesterday's EMA from today's price and then adding this result to yesterday's EMA to get today's EMA. An EMA generally produces a smoother line than other forms of moving averages, which can be an important factor in choppy market conditions.

Closing prices for a period are usually used to calculate a moving average, but you can also use the open, high or low or some combination of all of them. Moving averages are often used in crossover trading systems. A buy signal occurs when the short- or intermediate-term averages cross from below to above the longer-term average. Conversely, a sell signal is issued when the short- and intermediate-term averages cross from above to below the longer-term average.

Another trading approach is to use the "current price" method. If the current price is above the moving average, you buy. Liquidate that position when the current price crosses below your selected moving average. For a short position, sell when the current price falls below the moving average. Liquidate that position when the current price rises above the average.

Because the moving average changes constantly as the latest market data arrive, many traders test different "specified" time frames before they come up with a series of moving averages that are optimal for a particular market.

Some use combinations such as 5-day, 10-day and 20-day moving averages, taking crossovers of the shorter moving average over the longer moving average as a trading signal. Still others use longer-term moving average lines as another point of support or resistance.

In short, moving averages have a number of applications and are easy to understand, making them a clear indicator choice for many traders.

Trading Education

Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) - MACD is a more detailed method of using moving averages to find trading signals from price charts. MACD plots the difference between a longer-term exponential moving average and a shorter exponential moving average (the chart below uses 21 days and 9 days). Then a 9-day moving average of this difference is generally used as a trigger line.

The MACD indicator is used in three ways:

  • Crossover signals. When the MACD line crosses below the trigger line, it is a bearish signal; when it crosses above it, it's a bullish signal. Another crossover signal occurs when MACD crosses above or below the zero line.
  • Overbought-oversold. If the shorter moving average pulls away from the longer moving average dramatically, it indicates the market may be coming over-extended and is due for a correction to bring the averages back together.
  • Divergence. As with other studies, traders look at MACD to provide early signals or divergences between market prices and a technical indicator. If the MACD turns positive and makes higher lows while prices are still tanking, this could be a strong buy signal. Conversely, if the MACD makes lower highs while prices are making new highs, this could be a strong bearish divergence and a sell signal.

With its moving average base, MACD is a lagging indicator and requires rather strong price movement to generate a signal. Therefore, it works best in markets that make broad moves but does perform well in choppy, congested trading conditions.

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Directional Movement Index - The Directional Movement Indicator (DMI), also called the Directional Movement System, is used to determine the strength of a market trend. The Average Directional Movement index, or ADX, is part of the DMI and gauges the trendiness of the market. When used with the up and down Directional Indicator (DI) values – Plus DI and Minus DI – you could have a trading system.

The basic rules for a DMI system include establishing a long position whenever the Plus DI crosses above the Minus DI. Reverse that position – liquidate the long position and establish a short position – when the Minus DI crosses below the Plus DI.

The ADX line (green on the chart below) is perhaps the focal point of the DMI for most traders. If the ADX line is trading above 30, then the market is in a strong trend, either up or down. ADX does not indicate the direction of the trend. If the ADX line is below 30, it means the trend is not a strong one. If the market is in a solid trend and scoring new highs and the ADX line shows divergence and turns down, that is a warning signal that the market trend is losing power and a market top or bottom may be close at hand.

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Volatility Indicators

Volatility shows how active a market is as reflected by the size of price ranges without specifying a price direction. An indicator such as Bollinger Bands reveals changes in volatility levels, which often lead changes in prices.

Bollinger Bands - Bollinger Bands are volatility curves used to identify extreme highs or lows in relation to price. They establish trading parameters, or bands, above and below a moving average at a set number of standard deviations from this moving average. Both the length of the moving average and the number of standard deviations can be modified to fit the market.

Traders generally use Bollinger Bands to determine overbought and oversold zones, to confirm divergences between prices and other technical indicators and to project price targets. The wider the bands on a chart, the greater the market volatility; the narrower the bands, the less market volatility.

Some traders use Bollinger Bands in conjunction with another indicator such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI). If the price touches the upper band and the RSI does not confirm the upward move (i.e. there is divergence between the indicators), a sell signal is generated. If the indicator confirms the upward move, no sell signal is generated – in fact, a buy signal may be indicated. If the price touches the lower band and the RSI does not confirm the downward move, a buy signal is generated. If the indicator confirms the downward move, no buy signal is generated – in fact, a sell signal may be indicated.

Another strategy uses Bollinger Bands without another indicator. In this approach, a chart top occurring above the upper band followed by a top below the upper band generates a sell signal. Likewise, a chart bottom occurring below the lower band followed by a bottom above the lower band generates a buy signal.

Bollinger Bands also help determine overbought and oversold markets. When prices move closer to the upper band, the market is becoming overbought; as the prices move closer to the lower band, the market is becoming oversold. Price momentum should also be taken into account. You should always look for evidence of price weakening or strengthening before anticipating a market reversal.

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Momentum Indicators

No market can go up or down forever, and momentum indicators reflect when a price trend may be weakening or strengthening. These indicators are usually based on a scale from 0 to 100 and produce “overbought” and “oversold” signals. Although these indicators do not perform well in extended trending markets, one of their most useful applications is the concept of “divergence” – that is, prices go in one direction and the momentum indicator in another. If prices make a new high but the indicator makes a lower high, for example, the divergence suggests internal weakness that could signal the end of the upmove in prices.

Stochastics - The basic premise of the stochastic indicator developed by George Lane revolves around the position of the close relative to the high or low of the day. During periods of price decreases, daily closes tend to accumulate near the extreme lows of the day. During periods of price increases, closes tend to accumulate near the extreme highs of the day. The stochastic study is an oscillator designed to indicate oversold and overbought market conditions.

Stochastics are measured and represented by two different lines, %K and %D, and are plotted on a scale ranging from 0 to 100. Readings above 80 suggest an overbought situation; readings below 20 an oversold zone. The %K line is the faster, more sensitive indicator while the %D line takes more time to turn. When the %K line crosses over the %D line in overbought or oversold territory, this could be an indication that a market is about to reverse course.

Some technical analysts prefer the slow stochastic rather than the normal stochastic. The slow stochastic is simply the normal stochastic smoothed via a moving average technique. The most important signal is divergence between %D and price, which occurs when the stochastic %D line makes a series of lower highs while prices make a series of higher highs (see black lines on chart below). This signals an overbought market. An oversold market exhibits a series of lower lows while the %D makes a series of higher lows.

When one of the above patterns appears, you should anticipate a market signal. You initiate a market position when the %K crosses the %D from the right-hand side. A right-hand crossover is when the %D has bottomed or topped and is moving higher or lower and the %K crosses the %D line. The most reliable trades occur with divergence and when the %D is between 10 and 15 for a buy signal and between 85 and 90 for a sell signal.

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Relative Strength Index (RSI) - The main purpose of the Relative Strength Index (RSI ) created by J. Welles Wilder Jr. is to measure the market's strength or weakness. To calculate RSI, you figure out the average of the up closes and the average of the down closes for the study period (typically 14 days), then divide the average of the up closes by the average of the down closes to get a relative strength figure. Then you add 1 to that relative strength figure, divide that sum into100 and subtract that result from 100. If all that sounds complicated, remember that many analytical software programs do all those calculations for you.

A high RSI reading, above 70, suggests an overbought or weakening bull market. Conversely, a low RSI number, below 30, implies an oversold market or dying bear market. However, blindly selling when the RSI is above 70 or buying when the RSI is below 30 can be an expensive trading system. A move to those levels is a signal that market conditions are ripe for a market top or bottom, but it does not, in itself, indicate a top or a bottom.

Although you can use the RSI as an overbought and oversold indicator, like many indicators, it works best when a failure swing occurs between the RSI and market prices. For example, the market makes new highs after a bull market setback but the RSI fails to exceed its previous highs.

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Commodity Channel Index (CCI) - The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) was designed to detect the beginning and ending of market trends by measuring the distance between the market price and its moving average, providing a measurement of trend strength and/or intensity. The CCI is calculated as the difference between the mean price of a market and the average of the means over a chosen period. This difference is then compared with the average difference over the time period.

Values of +100 to –100 indicate a market with no trends. About 70%-80% of all price fluctuations fall within +100 and –100, as measured by the index. Buy and sell signals occur only when the +100 line (buy) and the –100 (sell) are crossed. The way this indicator works is almost the opposite of how you would use an oscillator (overbought/oversold) such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) or Slow Stochastics.

To trade using CCI, establish a long position when the CCI exceeds +100. Liquidate when the index drops below +100. Your reference point for a short position is a value of –100. Any value less than –100 suggests a short position, while a rise to –85 tells you to liquidate your short position.

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Percent Range - The Percent Range (%R) technical indicator, often associated with Larry Williams and called Williams %R, attempts to measure overbought and oversold market conditions. Like other indicators, %R always falls between a value of 100 and 0 and measures where the current day's closing price falls within the price range for a specified number of days.

The %R study is similar to the Stochastic indicator except that the Stochastic has internal smoothing and %R is plotted on an upside-down scale, with 0 at the top and 100 at the bottom. A value of 0 indicates the closing price is the same as the period high. Conversely, a value of 100 shows that the closing price is identical to the period low. A reading above 80 indicates an oversold condition; a reading below 20 an overbought situation.

On specifying the length of the interval for the %R study, some technicians prefer to use a value that corresponds to one-half of the normal cycle length. If you specify a small value for the length of the trading range, the study is quite volatile. Conversely, a large value smoothes the %R and generates fewer trading signals.

As with other indicators, selling just because a %R shows a market to be overbought (or buying just because it is oversold) may take a trader out of the particular market long before the price falls (or rises) because %R can remain in an overbought/oversold condition for a long time.

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Momentum or Rate of Change - The whole group of momentum oscillators involves the analysis of the rate of price change rather than the price level. The speed of price movement and the rate at which prices are moving up or down provide clues to the amount of strength the bulls or bears have at a given point in time, a key indicator regarding the viability of a trend and whether it is about to end or begin.

Momentum can be calculated by dividing the day's closing price by the closing price X number of days ago and then multiplying the quotient by 100. The momentum study is an oscillator-type indicator to interpret overbought/oversold situations. By determining the pace at which price is rising or falling, the indicator shows whether a current trend is gaining or losing momentum, whether or not a market is overbought or oversold, and whether the trend is slowing down.

Momentum is calculated by computing the continuous difference between prices at fixed intervals. That difference is either a positive or negative value plotted around a zero line. When momentum is above the zero line and rising, prices are increasing at an increasing rate. If momentum is above the zero line but declining, prices are still increasing but at a decreasing rate.

The opposite is true when momentum falls below the zero line. If momentum is falling and is below the zero line, prices are decreasing at an increasing rate. With momentum below the zero line and rising, prices are still declining but at a decreasing rate.

The normal trading rule is: Buy when the momentum line crosses from below the zero line to above. Sell when the momentum line crosses from above the zero line to below. Another possibility is to establish bands at each extreme of the momentum line. Initiate or change positions when the indicator enters either of those zones. You could modify that rule to enter a position only when the indicator reaches the overbought or oversold zone and then exits that zone.

You can specify the length of the momentum indicator based on your trading needs and methods. Some technicians argue the length of the momentum indicator should equal the normal price cycle, but you can make it more or less aggressive, depending on the market or your trading style.

Trading Education

SOURCE: Action Forex

SOURCE: Trading Education

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posted by Storm @ 1/07/2008 04:00:00 AM   0 comments
Build Your Own Profitable FOREX Trading System in Five Simple Steps
Saturday, January 5, 2008

If you want to make big profits, then you should know that the best way is do it for yourself - and not rely on others.

Any trader (even a novice) can build a successful FOREX trading system - and this article shows you how to build a profitable system in five simple steps.

What Makes a Successful FOREX Trading System?

Successful trading systems have three main characteristics:

1. They are Simple

Forget complicated systems with lots of rules - it’s a proven fact that simple systems work better - and are less likely to fail, in the brutal world of trading.

2. They Run Profits and Cut Losses

You need to have a longer term FOREX trading system that milks the big trends for profit, and cuts losses quickly.

3. They Follow Long Term Trends

There is no point in trading for small profits - i.e. day trading, as you will never cover your inevitable loses with small profits.

Focus on long-term trends - it’s these that yield the big profits, as they can last for years.

Now let’s get down to the five steps of building a FOREX Trading System:

1. Your Method

We have said to keep it simple, and this is exactly what you should do - just a few rules, and a robust money management system.

2. Spotting Opportunities

Look for the long-term weekly trends, and then move to daily charts to time entry. When we say long-term trends, we mean months, or years - NOT just a week or two.

3. The Best Way to Trade Currencies is via a Breakout Method.

Breakouts occur in all currency markets all the time - so base your system on a trend following breakout system.

There isn’t space here to describe exactly what a breakout system is, but we have articles on breakouts posted on our web site.

It’s a fact that most of the world’s billionaire traders use breakout systems in their trading - and you should use a breakout system as well.

4. Timing Entry

The best way to time an entry is to watch for a break on the chart, confirmed by stochastics crossing with bullish or bearish divergence – this is a great timing tool.

When you are in strongly trending markets, you can also use Bollinger bands, to time your entries - and take profits.

The Bollinger band is a great filter indicator, and all traders should consider it.

5. Money Management

If you are following a breakout method, either the trade runs quickly in your favor - or the break is “false” and quickly reverses.

Don’t put your stop just below the breakout point! - If the trade does not follow through within the day, exit the market, and use a monetary stop in the day session.

A Simple F0REX Trading System for Profit

With the above system, you will focus on the longer-term trends - and milk them for maximum profit.

You will also not trade frequently, and you will liquidate losers quickly.

We don’t have space here to go through how to use the indicators, but with a bit of research and testing you will see why a FOREX trading system built on the above principles, will work, and will continue to work.

The system will give you a lot more profit than the so called predictive, over hyped complicated systems, sold by vendors and guru’s – these systems only work in back testing.

Build yourself a FOREX trading system - and see for yourself, just how profitable they can be!

New! A valuable FREE Currency Trader CD containing 9 critical trading reports, tips, strategies and currency trading info. Visit our web site now and grab your CD http://www.tradercurrencies.com

Article Source: Ezine Articles

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posted by Storm @ 1/05/2008 04:40:00 AM   0 comments
A Forex Trader's Biggest Enemy

Toby gives an account of a powerful factor behind currency trading that if used wisely is worthwhile, but if misused, can cause people to lose their trading accounts: leverage. Here's the article:

The biggest enemy to most forex traders is not the market or their trading system but the use of leverage. When using too much of it, most of times it will take your account serious down, even with one single trade.

Last week, a new forex trader showed us his account statement and asked what he was doing wrong.

After taking a look into his account statement, we did notice the following:

Start balance: $25000
End balance: $2300
Numbers of trades: 7

How did he manage his account down so fast?

Again, leverage! First couple of days, this trader could manage his account up to 27K using 1 standard lot.
After that, things went wrong. What has happened, too much confidence? Probably, yes.
This trader went trading at a serious leverage taking 15 standard lots at the time. Wow, but very wrong! Why?

First do the math.
15 standard lots for the EUR/USD pair equals $150/pip you win or lose.

His first trade went completely wrong and was closed for a 130 pip loss which equals -$19500. In fact this trader was getting a margin call from the broker to prevent him from further losses. A margin call will occur in this case when trader’s balance is falling below $7500 in equity.

As a result of this trade, only $7500 was left in his account.

Next couple of trades where traded also on max. leverage which could be used, only to win couple of pips and losing a lot of pips.

The result was an account balance worth $2.3K after 2 weeks trading FX.

Conclusion :

When trading at big leverage, only couple of pips (winning or losing) can affect your account dramatically. Regarding our trader, only 10 winning or losing pips traded at 15 standard lots equals $1500 which is 6% of his start balance.

Trading at high leverages, a trader will close the trade if he win couple of pips because of the big positive %gain on his account balance.

Going into the negative, trader will hold on the trade and hoping it will come back, most of times, this will result in a very big loss.

How to avoid this:

As a general rule, only take 1 mini lot for every $1000 in account. For a standard account, only take 1 standard lot for every $10K in account.

Please note: Most fund managers are not even allowed to trade at these leverages, for example, some of them only take 1 standard lot for every 50K in account.


Toby Smitz - Daily Operations Forex Resources.

Article Source: Ezine Articles

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posted by Storm @ 1/05/2008 03:10:00 AM   0 comments
Do You Know Your Forex Broker?
Friday, January 4, 2008

In the United States, forex industry is regulated by CFTC (Commodity Futuers Trading Commission) and NFA (National Futures Association). Forex brokers must register with CFTC as a FCM ( Futures Commercial Merchant ) before they can accept deposits from investors. If companies or individuals are involved in soliciting clients and not able to accept deposits, then they are not FCMs. They are introducing brokers. Introducing brokers recruit cilents for FX clearing house and usually compensated by FCMs. Each Futures Commercial Merchant has an unique NFA ID number so perspective clients can check standings of FCMs with the regulatory authorities.

Before selecting your forex broker, you must know who they are, what kind of products or services they offer and what their ratings are with the government authorities. We provide you with a check list to help you determine which forex broker is the right one for you.

  • Is there a demo account that I can try out?
  • Does the broker offer commission free trading?
  • What kind of spreads does the broker offer?
  • How fast are the trade executions?
  • Is the trading platform reliable?
  • Does the broker offer free charting package?
  • Does the broker offer free live news?

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posted by Storm @ 1/04/2008 06:12:00 AM   0 comments
Forex Glossary
Thursday, January 3, 2008

Accrual - The apportionment of premiums and discounts on forward exchange transactions that relate directly to deposit swap (Interest Arbitrage) deals , over the period of each deal.

Appreciation - A currency is said to 'appreciate' when it strengthens in price in response to market demand.

Arbitrage - The purchase or sale of an instrument and simultaneous taking of an equal and opposite position in a related market, in order to take advantage of small price differentials between markets.

Ask (Offer) Price - The price at which the market is prepared to sell a specific Currency in a Foreign Exchange Contract or Cross Currency Contract. At this price, the trader can buy the base currency. In the quotation, it is shown on the right side of the quotation. For example, in the quote USD/CHF 1.4527/32, the ask price is 1.4532; meaning you can buy one US dollar for 1.4532 Swiss francs.

Bear Market - Someone who believes the prices/market will decline.

Bid - The price that a buyer is prepared to purchase at; the price offered for a currency.

Bretton Woods Accord of 1944 - An agreement that established fixed foreign exchange rates for major currencies, provided for central bank intervention in the currency markets, and set the price of gold at US $35 per ounce. The agreement lasted until 1971. See More on Bretton Woods.

Bull Market - A market characterised by rising prices.

Broker - An agent who handles investors' orders to buy and sell currency. For this service, a commission is charged which, depending upon the broker and the amount of the transaction, may or may not be negotiated.

Cable - Dealers slang for the Sterling/US Dollar exchange rate.

Call Rate - The overnight interbank interest rate.

Cash Market - The market for the purchase and sale of physical currencies.

Convertible Currency - Currency which can be freely exchanged for other currencies or gold without special authorisation from the appropriate central bank.

Counter Party - The customer or bank with whom a foreign deal is made. The term is also used in interest and currency swaps markets to refer to a participant in a swap exchange.

Cross Rate - An exchange rate between two currencies, usually constructed from the individual exchange rates of the two currencies, measured against the United States dollar.

Currency Risk - The risk of incurring losses resulting from an adverse change in exchange rates.

Currency Swap - Contract which commits two counter-parties to exchange streams of interest payments in different currencies for an agreed period of time and to exchange principal amounts in different currencies at a pre-agreed exchange rate at maturity.

Currency Option - Option contract which gives the right to buy or sell a currency with another currency at a specified exchange rate during a specified period.

Currency Swaption - OTC Option to enter into a currency swap contract.

Currency Warrant - OTC Option; long-dated (more than one year) currency option.

Day Trading - Refers to opening and closing the same position or positions within one day's trading.

Dollar Rate - When a variable amount of a foreign currency is quoted against one US Dollar, regardless of where the dealer is located or in what currency he is requesting a quote. The exception is the Sterling/US Dollar rate (cable) which is quoted as variable amount of US Dollars to one Sterling.

EMS - Abbreviation for European Monetary System, an agreement between member nations of the European Union to maintain an alignment between the exchange rates of their respective currencies.

European Monetary Unit - The principal goal of the EMU is to establish a single European currency called the Euro, which will officially replace the national currencies of the member EU countries in 2002. Currently, the Euro exists only as a banking currency and for paper financial transactions and foreign exchange. The current members of the EMU are Germany, France, Belgium, Luxembourg, Austria, Finland, Ireland, the Netherlands, Italy, Spain and Portugal.

Federal Reserve (Fed) - The Central Bank of the United States.

Fixed Exchange Rate - Official rate set by monetary authorities for one or more currencies. In practice, even fixed exchange rates are allowed to fluctuate between definite upper and lower bands, leading to intervention.

Flat / Square - To be neither long nor short is the same as to be flat or square. One would have a flat book if he has no positions or if all the positions cancel each other out.

Floating Rate Interest - As opposed to a fixed rate, the interest rate on this type of deal will fluctuate with market rates or benchmark rates. One example of a floating rate interest is a standard mortgage.

Foreign Exchange Swap - Transaction which involves the actual exchange of two currencies (principal amount only) on a specific date at a rate agreed at the time of the conclusion of the contract (short leg), at a date further in the future at a rate agreed at the time of the contract (the long leg).

Forward - A deal that will commence at an agreed date in the future. Forward trades in FX are usually expressed as a margin above (premium) or below (discount) the spot rate. To obtain the actual forward FX price, one adds the margin to the spot rate. The rate will reflect what the FX rate has to be at the forward date so that if funds were re-exchanged at that rate there would be no profit or loss (i.e. a neutral trade). The rate is calculated from the relevant deposit rates in the 2 underlying currencies and the spot FX rate. Unlike in the futures market, forward trading can be customized according to the needs of the two parties and involves more flexibility. Also, there is no centralized exchange.

Fundamental Analysis - Thorough analysis of economic and political data with the goal of determining future movements in a financial market.

GTC - "Good Till Cancelled". An order left with a Dealer to buy or sell at a fixed price. The order remains in place until it is cancelled by the client.

Hedging - The practice of undertaking one investment activity in order to protect against loss in another, e.g. selling short to nullify a previous purchase, or buying long to offset a previous short sale. While hedges reduce potential losses, they also tend to reduce potential profits.

High/Low - Usually the highest traded price and the lowest traded price for the underlying instrument for the current trading day.

Initial Margin - The required initial deposit of collateral to enter into a position as a guarantee on future performance.

Interbank Rates - The Foreign Exchange rates at which large international banks quote other large international banks.

Limit Order - An order to buy at or below a specified price or to sell at or above a specified price.

Long Position - A market position where the Client has bought a currency he previously did not hold own. Normally expressed in base currency terms.

Margin - Customers must deposit funds as collateral to cover any potential losses from adverse movements in prices.

Margin Call - A demand for additional funds. A requirement by a clearing house that a clearing member (or by a brokerage firm that a client) brings margin deposits up to a required minimu m level to cover an adverse movement in price in the market.

Market Maker - A dealer who supplies prices and is prepared to buy or sell at those stated bid and ask prices. A market maker runs a trading book.

Offer - The price, or rate, that a willing seller is prepared to sell at.

One Cancels Other Order (O.C.O. Order) - A contingent order where the execution of one part of the order automatically cancels the other part.

Open Position - Any deal which has not been settled by physical payment or reversed by an equal and opposite deal for the same value date.

Over The Counter (OTC) - Used to describe any transaction that is not conducted over an exchange.

Overnight Trading - Refers to a purchase or sale between the hours of 9.00 pm and 8.00 am. on the following day.

Pip (or Points) - The term used in currency market to represent the smallest incremental move an exchange rate can make. Depending on context, normally one basis point (0.0001 in the case of EUR/USD, GBD/USD, USD/CHF and .01 in the case of USD/JPY).

Political Risk - The uncertainty in return on an investment due to the possibility that a government might take actions which are detrimental to the investor's interests.

Quote - An indicative market price, normally used for information purposes only.

Resistance - A price level at which you would expect selling to take place.

Risk Capital - The amount of money that an individual can afford to invest, which, if lost would not affect their lifestyle.

Rollover - Where the settlement of a deal is rolled forward to another value date based on the interest rate differential of the two currencies.

Settlement - Actual physical exchange of one currency for another.

Short - To go 'short' is to have sold an instrument without actually owning it, and to hold a short position with expectations that the price will decline so it can be bought back in the future at a profit.

Spot - A transaction that occurs immediately, but the funds will usually change hands within two days after deal is struck.

Spread - The difference between the bid and offer (ask) prices; used to measure market liquidity. Narrower spreads usually signify high liquidity.

Stop Loss Order - An order to buy or sell at the market when a particular price is reached, either above or below the price that prevailed when the order was given.

Support Levels - A price level at which you would expect buying to take place.

Technical Analysis - An effort to forecast future market activity by analyzing market data such as charts, price trends, and volume.

Tomorrow to Next - Simultaneous buying and selling of a currency for delivery the following day and selling for the next day or vice versa.

Two-Way Price - Rates for which both a bid and offer are quoted.

US Prime Rate - The interest rate at which US banks will lend to their prime corporate customers.

Value Date - Settlement date of a spot or forward deal.

Variation Margin - An additional margin requirement that a broker will need from a client due to market fluctuation.

Volatility - A statistical measure of a market or a security's price movements over time and is calculated by using standard deviation. Associated with high volatility is a high degree of risk.

Whipsaw - slang for a condition of a highly volatile market where a sharp price movement is quickly followed by a sharp reversal.

Yard - Slang for a billion.

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posted by Storm @ 1/03/2008 09:03:00 PM   0 comments








 
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